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Press Release 31/10/2000
The Precautionary Principle is Coherent
Peter Saunders and Mae-Wan Ho argue: The precautionary principle is not
an algorithm for making decisions, but a principle for making decisions
based on available evidence. So let's look at the evidence.
In a recent article, Comstock claims that the precautionary principle
commits us at the same time to two contradictory courses of action: that
we should develop GM crops and that we should not (1). He concludes that
the principle is therefore 'incoherent' and challenges defenders of the
principle to explain why it is not.
Like so many other opponents of the precautionary principle, Comstock
misunderstands its role. He assumes it is an algorithm for making
decisions, which is why he writes of the principle as committing us to one
or another course of action.
We want to emphasise that the precautionary principle is not an
algorithm for making decisions. It does not make decisions for us, but it
is a principle on which to base decisions. It is a principle for assigning
the burden of proof, in much the same way that the defendant in a criminal
court is assumed innocent until proven guilty 'beyond reasonable doubt'
(see "Use and Abuse of the
Precautionary Principle" by Peter Saunders, ISIS News#6
www.i-sis.org.uk). This important rule reflects society's view that
convicting the innocent is far worse than acquitting the guilty. It has a
profound effect on the outcome of many trials, but it still leaves the
jury with a lot to do. They still have to weigh up the evidence, and they
have to decide for themselves what constitutes 'reasonable doubt'.
In the same way, the precautionary principle requires us to assign the
burden of proof to those who want to introduce a new technology,
particularly in cases where there is little or no established need or
benefit and where the hazards are serious and irreversible. It is up to
the perpetrators to prove that the technology is safe 'beyond reasonable
doubt' . We cannot expect the precautionary principle by itself to tell us
what to do about GM crops or any other new technology. Like a jury, we
have to weigh up the evidence, and like a jury we have to come to a
decision.
This is a good time to consider the evidence as there is a public
hearing going on in the UK on Aventis' Chardon LL GM maize, which the UK
government is proposing to put on the National List. The transcripts of
witness statements from citizens and scientists are all posted on the
website of the UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (www.maff.gov.uk).
So, what is the evidence on GM crops? There is practically no evidence
that they are safe, of the kind that could stand up in a court of law.
There is less than a handful of papers on the subject of safety assessment
published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. The vast majority consists
of unpublished reports submitted to regulatory bodies for product
approval, and these, far from supporting claims of safety, actually
provides evidence to the contrary (see transcript of Dr. Arpad Pusztai's
statement Chardon LL hearing, London, October 24, 2000). The published
papers from the industry are no better. For example, Monsanto's study on
Roundup Ready soya was seriously flawed. The two papers (Hammond et al,
1996, Journal of Nutrition 126, 717-26; and Padgette et al, 1996, Journal
of Nutrition 126, 702-16) showed, among other things, significant
increases in milk fat in cows and lower weight gains in male rats fed GM
soya. There was also a 26.7% increase in a major allergen and growth
inhibitor, ?-antitrypsin in the GM soya. Monsanto had failed to submit
even more damning data indicating that another allergen, a soya lectin,
was increased by 100% in retoasted soya beans ("Buried data in
Monsanto's study on Roundup Ready soybeans" by Barbara Keeler
doodles@netins.net (Ericka))
On the other hand, there is already plenty of evidence of actual and
suspected hazards from findings reported in the scientific literature.
Readers can see for themselves from all the transcripts of the Chardon LL
hearing.
We summarise some of the findings which have been presented at the
hearing (see Dr. Mae-Wan Ho's statement, October 26, 2000 www.maff.gov.uk)
and elsewhere (see World Scientists' Open Letter and other papers,
www.i-sis.org.uk) .
- GM genes such as those coding for bt toxins are harmful to beneficial
and endangered insect species. Several of the toxins are also known to be
actual or potential allergens for human beings.
- New, unexpected toxins and allergens have arisen from the inherently
random, uncontrollable nature of the process whereby GMOs are made.
- GM constructs in GM plants have spread to related species by cross
pollination, and weeds and superweeds resistant to multiple herbicides
have appeared.
- GM constructs containing antibiotic resistance genes have spread to
bacteria in the soil and in the gut of bees. These bacteria constitute a
reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes, which may be passed on to
pathogenic bacteria, making infections very difficult to treat.
- DNA is found not to be readily broken down by most commercial processing
or in the gut of mammals.
- The gut of livestock and human beings contain bacteria that can take up
foreign DNA containing antibiotic resistance genes, making infections
untreatable.
- Horizontal transfer of GM genes to unrelated species has been found to
create new viruses in many GM plants with viral genes in the GM construct.
- GM constructs may spread more readily by horizontal gene transfer, if
only because GM constructs are specifically designed to cross species
barriers and to invade genomes.
- All cells, including those of human beings, can readily take up GM
constructs, and in some cases incorporate them into the cell's genome.
- The cauliflower mosaic virus 35S promoter (CaMV 35S promoter) widely
used to make GM genes over-express continuously, is active in practically
all living species, plants, bacteria, algae, fungi, amphibian and human
beings. Hence, any gene linked to it will be active in all species to
which the GM construct is transferred. The CaMV 35S promoter can also make
other host genes over-express. Over-expressing of certain cellular genes
is associated with cancer in animals and human beings.
- The CaMV 35S promoter has a recombination hotspot where it is prone to
break and join up with other DNA, thus increasing the likelihood for
horizontal gene transfer.
- The CaMV 35S promoter is known to substitute in part or in whole for
promoters of other viruses to give infectious viruses. That means it has
the potential to wake up dormant viruses that have now been found in all
genomes, plants and animals included.
- GM lines are notorious unstable, do not breed true, and do not perform
consistently in the field. Evidence is emerging on yield drag, increased
use of herbicides, susceptibility to disease, and other failures.
Given the weight of evidence, it seems obvious to us that no GM crops
should be planted in open fields, unless and until we can be convinced, by
counter-evidence, that the risks are minimal. It also suggests that we
should be far more cautious about genetic engineering altogether than we
are at the present.
But by being cautious about this new technology, are we, as Comstock and
others claim, running equal risks in the other direction? Do we risk
losing potential benefits, or being able to deal with needs that may
appear in 50 years time? Even if we were, that would not show that the
precautionary principle is incoherent, only that we have to strike an
appropriate balance. This might well be difficult in some cases, but not
in this one.
The biotech companies and their supporters say we need GM crops to
increase yield to feed a growing world population. Norman Borlaug, father
of the green revolution and prominent supporter of agricultural
biotechnology, claims GM crops are needed to feed a projected 10 billion.
Let us look at the best available evidence. There is no scientific report
documenting that yield has been increased in any GMO compared to non GMOs;
quite the contrary is the case, as mentioned earlier, yield drags are
frequently reported. What about population increase? The estimate produced
by the United Nations Population Division is that world population growth
had been slowing down since the 1960s. The total world population will
peak at 7.7 billion in 2040, then go into long term decline to 3.6 billion
by 2150, less than two-third of today's number. Similarly, the recent FAO
report (Agriculture: Towards 2015/30, FAO Global Perspectives Studies
Unit, July 2000) concludes that existing technologies, not counting GMOs,
will produce enough and more than enough food to meet population growth.
The real problem is one of distribution, as generally acknowledged. People
are starving in the midst of plenty.
What about the possibility that at some time in the future we may have
to make changes in the crops we grow and that genetic engineering may be
needed? Or that with more research, gene biotechnologists will be able to
produce new varieties that are indeed better and safer than the present
ones? Even allowing for those possibilities does not mean we have to rush
ahead with the present inadequately researched and tested technology. Nor
does it mean we have to accept unsubstantiated promises that GM crops will
provide the answer. And we certainly are not going to help our chances of
developing appropriate new varieties by gene biotechnology or other
methods, if we too hastily replace the diversity of crops that we still
have by a few standard commercial GM varieties of unproven agronomic
performance.
Looking at all the evidence and taking seriously the precautionary
principle thus lead to the following conclusion. We should continue doing
basic research in molecular genetics, including research relevant to the
safety of GM constructs as well as making GM plants; for example, on how
to modify existing genes precisely and safely, rather than to transfer in
GM constructs haphazardly. But all that should be done in the laboratory
and in the greenhouse under carefully contained conditions.
There should also be major effort devoted to developing better varieties
of crops by conventional breeding and to research on organic, low-input
farming methods. Agroecological farming methods which use crops and
knowledge adapted to local conditions have been increasing yields two,
three-fold since the 1980s. They provide social, environmental and health
benefits in Latin America, Africa and Asia. There are good reasons to
encourage farmers to grow and sell locally crops that are adapted to local
conditions, and not to pressure them into growing national or
international varieties for export. Export industrial agriculture is
responsible for a great proportion of the fossil fuel consumption that
contributes to climate change. Furthermore, there is incalculable health
bonus to be gained in phasing out agrochemicals that are known to be
linked to cancers and many other illnesses.
In that way, we can be confident about feeding the world today and for
the foreseeable future, and we will still stand to gain from whatever
benefits GM technology may bring. The only losers will be the biotech
industry, because they cannot afford to wait. The rest of us can.
Prof. Peter Saunders
Department of Mathematics
Dr Mae-Wan Ho
Institute of Science in Society
(1) Comstock's note, based on his talk at the meeting on Biotechnology
held in Cambridge, MA, 22-23 September 2000, is available on
http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidbiotech/comments/comments72.htm
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